Holding the rebound

Intraday Update

MARKET BEHAVIOR
Not a lot happening following the three-day weekend.  The market is up 0.3% in late-day trade and continues holding the recent rebound.  We remain above the 1,850 support and are 1.5% from all-time highs set a few weeks ago.

MARKET SENTIMENT
While the market appears quiet, that speaks volumes since few are fading this bounce.  Anyone who doesn’t believe in this market sold or shorted recent weakness, meaning there are few left to sell.  Those sellers were replaced by more confident buyers willing to own the volatility and downside risk.  The more confident owners are, the less likely they are to sell headlines and dips.  This churn in ownership is what set the stage for the bounce from 1,815.  Now that dip buyers are sitting on profits and owners who held the weakness are breathing a sigh of relief, the current group of owners is less likely to sell because their decisions to hold this market was reaffirmed.  Under most circumstances, confident owners means few sellers and tight supply.

TRADING PLAN
Expected Outcome: Pushing toward upper end of trading range.
If we close in the green today, that will be the 5th consecutive up-day and we all know even the strongest markets have down-days sprinkled in.  Currently we are running into resistance near 1,870, but no doubt many shorts placed their stops just above this level and we will likely see another short-squeeze when we move above this level.  From there the next big resistance level is 1,900.  But we are slipping into the summer trading session and are more likely to see sideways trade than the next rally leg.

Alternate Outcome:
If this market stalls at 1,870 and falls under recent 1,815 lows over the next few weeks, then we are on our way to the 200dma.

Trading Plan:
The best profit opportunities come from the seemingly riskiest trades.  This is buying when everyone else is selling at a discount and selling when everyone is buying at a premium.  While there is a little more upside as we approach the upper end of the trading range, it is far riskier buying the dip on the 5th consecutive up-day.  Swing traders are better served looking for opportunities to harvest profits than adding to their positions.  Bears should wait for a little more upside before fighting this market.  Stalling near 1,900 could be the next good shorting opportunity.

Plan your trade; trade your plan